Upward Revisions to Canada's GDP Are A "Big Deal", Says Rosenberg Research

08:11 AM EST, 12/05/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Last week, Statistics Canada slipped major revisions to previous data into its gross domestic product release, said Rosenberg Research.

Growth for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was each revised upwards by about 0.5%, meaning that GDP by the end of 2024 was a total of 1.7% higher than previously estimated. The revisions increased estimates for both consumer spending and business fixed investment.

Even with the revisions, Canada's real GDP per capita is still lower than in 2022, though the recent improvement seen is an encouraging development, noted Rosenberg Research.

As a point of comparison, the Bank of Canada's estimate for the output gap was just -1.1% Rosenberg pointed out. Now, while Rosenberg doesn't expect that gap to be closed -- as potential GDP will likely also be revised up, and unemployment remains well above the long-term neutral rate -- the revisions do mean that Canada's GDP growth trend is notably better than it has appeared in the last four years.

This has "major" implications for monetary policy and the currency, Rosenberg added. If the output gap estimate is reduced, this means the BoC sees less disinflationary pressure, and future rate cuts are less likely, which is bullish for the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie).

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.