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BMO Expects Canada to Shed Jobs in November, Sees BoC Holding Rates Next Week

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 12/05/25 07:59 AM EST

07:59 AM EST, 12/05/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada is scheduled to release the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for November at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Following a surprisingly strong 66,600 net gain in October, the bank looks for employment to decline by 5,000 -- Bloomberg consensus is for a 2,500 decline. This should nudge the unemployment rate up to 7.0%, with consensus the same.

Barring a major downside surprise, the expected weak report likely won't prompt the Bank of Canada to cut rates next week, though it may set the stage for a trim in the new year, stated BMO. The combined October/September job gains of 127,000 more than offset the steep losses of the prior two months, 106,000, while slower population growth has helped stabilize the unemployment rate around 7.0%.

Though up from 2022's low of 4.8% and indicating some slack in labor markets, the current jobless rate is exactly equal to its 25-year average, pointed out the bank.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to briefly meet with President Donald Trump at the World Cup draw in Washington D.C. on Friday, though there is no word on when or if official trade talks will resume, added BMO.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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