FOREX-Dollar steadies near five-week low on Fed rate cut bets

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 07:22 AM EST

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Traders lay 86% odds on a Fed cut on December 10

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US employment picture murky amid delayed data

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Yen gains amid reports BOJ likely to hike this month

(Updates prices, headline)

By Joice Alves

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The dollar index fell on Friday, trading not far from a five-week low ahead of the delayed release of a key U.S. inflation reading, which is not expected to change bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

The dollar was particularly weak against the yen, with the Japanese currency buoyed to a nearly three-week high by expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise rates this month.

The dollar index, measuring the currency against six peers, was down was down 0.05% at 99.029, heading back towards Thursday's five-week low of 98.765.

One of the Fed's preferred inflation gauges - the PCE deflator - will be published later on Friday, although the data is for September. Economists surveyed by LSEG expect a 0.2% monthly increase in the core number.

That is not seen changing expectations the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-point when the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on December 9-10, and the focus will be on any signals about how much additional easing lies ahead.

Traders are pricing an 86% chance of a Fed cut next week, and potentially two more reductions next year, LSEG data showed.

Investors are also weighing the prospect of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett taking over as Fed Chair after Jerome Powell's term ends in May. Hassett is expected to push for more rate cuts.

The dollar "remains slightly offered on the view that the Fed will cut rates next week and that the arrival of Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair will somehow make the Fed more dovish," said Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets at ING.

The U.S. labour market has also been in focus, as an indication for the Fed to determine whether the economy needs further support.

Data overnight showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a more than three-year low last week, but may have been skewed by the Thanksgiving holiday.

The data picture remains incomplete after the record-long government shutdown delayed some releases and prevented other data from being collected.

Crucial monthly payrolls figures would ordinarily be published later on Friday, but have been delayed until mid-December, and the previous month's numbers were never released.

YEN EYES BOJ HIKE

The dollar steadied to 155.16 yen, after hitting its lowest since November 17.

BOJ officials are ready to raise rates on December 19 in the absence of any major economic shocks, Bloomberg reported on Friday, a day after Reuters reported three sources as saying a hike this month was likely.

The euro was flat at $1.1645, not far from Thursday's three-week high of $1.1682.

Sterling added 0.1% to $1.3337, approaching the previous session's six-week peak of $1.3385.

Next week sees a parade of central bank policy decisions, with the Reserve Bank of Australia's coming on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada's on Wednesday and the Swiss National Bank's on Thursday.

That continues the following week with the BOJ, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Sweden's Riksbank.

The Aussie was up 0.3% to $0.6627, after touching a more than two-month high.

The Swiss franc steadied at 0.8034 per dollar after dropping back sharply from Wednesday's two-week high of 0.7992 in the previous session. (Reporting by Joice Alves in London and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo Editing by Mark Potter, Peter Graff)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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