Chicago Fed sees November unemployment rate steady at 4.4% as alternate data shows job losses

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12/04/25 08:32 AM EST

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged around 4.4% in November, the Chicago Federal Reserve estimated on Thursday, while closely watched data from a private provider added to the evidence that the U.S. labor market is slowly weakening.?

With official unemployment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics still delayed following the government shutdown in October and November, the new reports could add weight to arguments at next week's Federal Reserve meeting in favor of cutting the benchmark policy rate another quarter of a percentage point.

The BLS would typically issue its employment report for November on Friday, but has delayed it until December 16, after the Fed meets on December 9-10.

The Chicago Fed derives its jobless rate estimate from both public and private data and issues it twice a month to give policymakers more frequent updates on a key measure of the economy. The latest numbers showed little change in the pace at which workers are being hired or fired, leaving the jobless rate on an unrounded basis nearly unchanged in November at 4.44% versus 4.46% in October.

The last official unemployment rate reported by BLS was 4.44%, unrounded, for the month of September.?

Meanwhile, Revelio Labs, which develops monthly employment estimates from online employment profiles and other information, reported the economy lost 9,000 jobs in November, a second month of decline after a drop of 9,100 estimated for October.

The losses were largest in the leisure and hospitality and retail sectors, which shed an estimated 12,000 and 9,000 positions respectively, while manufacturing continued its hiring slump with a loss of 7,000 positions.

The report by Revelio follows a finding of even steeper November job losses of around 32,000 issued on Wednesday by private payroll provider ADP.??

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

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