EMERGING MARKETS-EM stocks edge higher as investors juggle Fed hopes with Ukraine risks

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12/04/25 04:58 AM EST

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Stocks up 0.2%, currencies flat

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Ukraine's dollar bonds steady

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European equities recover

By Niket Nishant

Dec 4 (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks rose on Thursday, drawing cautious interest as investors assessed shifting global risk appetite and a flurry of Ukraine-related developments.

The MSCI index of emerging market equities was up 0.2% and the corresponding currencies gauge was little changed.

While December is typically a quieter month, geopolitical turbulence has kept investors on tenterhooks. Markets have pinned their hopes on the Federal Reserve to support momentum by lowering interest rates, but the absence of a breakthrough in efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war has capped gains.

Ukraine's dollar-denominated bonds were steady on Thursday. The country has hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia's central Tambov region, a source in Ukraine's GUR military intelligence said on Wednesday.

Talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. envoys concluded without significant progress.

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Most European markets recovered, with Hungary's Budapest SE index gaining 0.5% and Polish equities up 0.6%.

The Czech crown was down 0.4% against the euro, and the Polish zloty fell 0.1%. Poland's central bank cut its main interest rate by another 25 basis points on Wednesday, its sixth reduction this year.

Markets also heaved a sigh of relief after a slew of U.S. economic data on Wednesday kept expectations for a Fed rate cut elevated.

Elsewhere, Saudi Arabian stocks gained 1.1%, helped by firmer oil prices after Ukrainian attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure signalled potential supply constraints, and stalled peace talks tempered expectations of a deal restoring Russian oil flows to global markets.

Despite claims of talks being constructive, "the issue of territory will be tough to resolve", economists at ING wrote in a note.

In China, the blue-chip CSI300 index was up 0.3%. The country is likely to stick to its current annual economic growth target of around 5% next year, government advisers and analysts said.

Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index was up 0.7%.

Analysts argue that the backdrop remains favourable for emerging market assets despite near-term headwinds.

"The current macroeconomic environment supports an overweight allocation to non-U.S. assets," said Brian Levitt, chief global market strategist at Invesco.

He pointed out that regional equities are better positioned to capitalize on the surge in AI enthusiasm, with valuations generally more benign than in the U.S.

Local currency debt could also benefit from a weaker dollar if U.S. rates are cut and inflation pressures continue to ease. (Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru, editing by Ed Osmond)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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