National Bank Sees Bank of Canada on The Sidelines Until End 2026 But Notes Chance of Rate Cut in Spring 2026

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 12/02/25 11:29 AM EST

11:29 AM EST, 12/02/2025 (MT Newswires) -- National Bank of Canada's baseline scenario involves the Bank of Canada on the sidelines through the end of 2026, but it agrees with OIS markets that there's some chance the BoC could cut next spring.

To get to that outcome, National Bank will need to see a "soft" Labour Force Survey (LFS) report this Friday.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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