Factbox-Major brokerages boost bets on December Fed rate cut ahead of policy meeting

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12/02/25 05:47 AM EST

Dec 2 (Reuters) - BofA Global Research became the latest brokerage to forecast an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, as dovish signals from key voting members and weakness in labor market conditions ramped up hopes of lower borrowing costs.

The Wall Street brokerage joined global peers like J.P.Morgan and Goldman Sachs (GS) who expect a quarter-point reduction when the Federal Open Market Committee meet for their last policy meeting of the year on December 9 and 10.

Traders are pricing in an 87.2% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Morgan Stanley (MS) and Standard Chartered (SCBFF) are among the few expecting the central bank to remain on hold next week.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for December policy meeting:

Brokerage? December policy Fed Funds Rate (end

meeting of 2025)

Citigroup? 25 bps 3.50-3.75%

?

Wells Fargo 25 bps 3.50-3.75%

?

Goldman Sachs? 25 bps 3.50-3.75%

?

J.P.Morgan?? 25 bps 3.50-3.75%

?

Barclays (BCS) 25 bps 3.50-3.75%

?

Nomura No cut 3.75-4.00%

?

Morgan Stanley No cut 3.75-4.00%

?

Deutsche Bank 25 bps 3.50-3.75%

?

BofA 25 bps

Global Research? 3.50-3.75%

BNP Paribas 25 bps 3.50-3.75%

?

HSBC 25 bps 3.50-3.75%

?

Standard No cut 3.75-4.00%

Chartered

Macquarie No cut 3.75-4.00%

UBS Global 25 bps 3.50-3.75%

Research

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Anil D'Silva)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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