EMERGING MARKETS-EM assets steady; Ukraine's GDP warrants surge after restructuring plan

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12/02/25 05:44 AM EST

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Stocks up 0.3%, FX flat

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Turkey's 5-year credit default swap drops to lowest since 2018

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Poland's central bank widely expected to cut rates on Wednesday

By Twesha Dikshit

Dec 2 (Reuters) - Emerging market equities ticked up slightly on Tuesday with investors continuing to monitor efforts to end the Ukraine and Russian war, while Ukraine's GDP warrants surged after the government announced a formal fixed income instruments restructuring plan.

The MSCI index of emerging market equities inched up 0.3%, while a corresponding currencies gauge was steady.

U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner were set to meet President Vladimir Putin to discuss a possible way to end the deadliest European conflict since World War Two.

Meanwhile, Ukraine launched an offer to investors to swap $3.2 billion of complex and costly GDP warrants for international bonds on Monday, in a bid to emerge from sovereign default. The news sent the warrant more than 4 cent higher on Tuesday to 97.4 cents on the dollar, their highest level in over four years, according to Tradeweb data.

Renewed attempts to end the Russian war in Ukraine have bolstered emerging markets with equities ending last week up over 2%, following a sharp tech-led selloff in mid-November that dampened global sentiment and sent shares plunging.

Still, doubts remain on what a potential peace deal could look like and who might emerge as a winner in the negotiations.

"Developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain the most relevant topic... as U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff meets with President Putin today, we should gain a clearer sense of how close we are to any agreement," ING analysts said in a note.

"The market is still pessimistic about progress in the negotiations, and a possible agreement would provide a boost to FX across the CEE region."

CENTRAL BANK UPDATES TAKE THE SPOTLIGHT

The Turkish Central Bank said it had decided to take simplification steps regarding reserve requirement regulations, revising FX reserve requirement ratios. The lira was flat against the dollar while equities edged up 0.2%.

The country's 5-year credit default swap dropped to 232 bps, lowest since May 2018, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The National Bank of Poland is widely expected to lower interest rate by 25 bps to 4% on Wednesday with inflation data showing the November rate fell within the central bank's target range, while wage growth rates were slower than expected. The zloty slackened 0.3% against the euro.

Poland's WIG20 Index dropped 1.3%. Polish shares of Santander Bank were down 5.8% after the Spanish lender sold a stake in its Polish subsidiary through an accelerated bookbuild. Allegro shares fell 3.2% after shareholders sold shares of the country's largest e-commerce company.

Czech equities rose 0.5% while the krona ticked down. The central bank's most likely outcome at the final policy meeting of the year is to keep rates stable, Governor Ales Michi told news website Novinky.cz.

Over in Asia, South Korea's KOSPI Index jumped 1.9% after the U.S. Commerce Secretary confirmed Washington would lower the general tariff rate on imports from South Korea to 15%, retroactive to November 1.

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see

(Reporting by Twesha Dikshit in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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