ISM Manufacturing Survey Shows Continued Contraction; S&P Data Indicate Slower Growth

01:50 PM EST, 12/01/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Two surveys released Monday painted a mixed picture of the US manufacturing sector for November, with Institute for Supply Management data showing continued contraction and an S&P Global (SPGI) report indicating slight deceleration in growth.

The ISM purchasing managers' index fell to 48.2 last month from 48.7 in October, marking a ninth consecutive month of contraction. A reading below 50 indicates the manufacturing sector is generally contracting. The consensus was for a 49 reading in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The new orders index dropped to 47.4 in November from 49.4 the month before, marking an under-50 reading for the third straight month, while production rose to 51.4 from 48.2. The employment index decreased to 44 from 46, its 10th consecutive month of contraction, while the prices gauge increased to 58.5 from 58.

"Companies continued to focus on accelerating staff reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand," Susan Spence, chair of the ISM's manufacturing business survey committee, said. "The main headcount management strategies remain layoffs and not filling open positions."

Oxford Economics said that despite the increase in the prices index, it continues to be "well below" its high from earlier this year, suggesting the peak impact of tariffs could be in the rear-view.

"A fiscal boost from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, interest-rate relief, and fading uncertainty should provide a needed boost to the sector next year, but these will take time to durably lift the producers who have been mired in a recession for over three years," Oxford Senior Economist Matthew Martin wrote in remarks e-mailed to MT Newswires.

S&P Global (SPGI) said its manufacturing PMI ticked down to 52.2 in November from 52.5 the month prior, but represented the fourth consecutive month of expansion. Production saw a "solid" increase, while employment grew further as the outlook improved, according to the data provider.

"Although the headline PMI signaled a further expansion of factory activity in November, the health of the US manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface," S&P Global Market Intelligence Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said.

Growth in new order inflows slowed sharply last month, pointing to "a marked weakening" of demand growth, Williamson said.

"For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data were available in 2007," Williamson added. "This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months."

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