RBC Says Canadian Dollar Needs More Than a Strong Jobs Report to Break Key Level

04:27 PM EST, 11/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Canadian dollar is not expected to break below the key area at 1.3923 unless there is much stronger Canadian data, more than just an upside surprise in next week's jobs report, according to RBC Capital Markets' latest CAD Weekly Soundbites.

RBC said that after a mixed third-quarter gross domestic product report, market attention is now shifting to the November Labour Force Survey, the last major release before the Bank of Canada's December meeting. The bank expects employment to be flat and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged, which would support a Bank of Canada's decision to stay on hold.

The recent selloff in the US dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate brought the ascending channel base, now at 1.3923, into focus, "but any sustained break of this key area is likely to take more than an upside surprise in the employment report next Friday," RBC said.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver either a hawkish rate cut or a dovish hold, while Canadian data are not strong enough to push the Bank of Canada off the sidelines in December, RBC said, adding that upcoming US data, employment on Dec. 16 and inflation on Dec. 18, will likely determine whether the USD/CAD exchange rate breaks its uptrend from July.

Prime Minister Carney will also be in Washington for the World Cup draw, and markets will watch for any interaction with US President Trump, the note added.

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