TSX Closer: The Index Sets Fourth-Straight Record Close, Despite Commodity Prices and Messy GDP Data

04:19 PM EST, 11/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange set its fourth-straight record close Friday, despite mixed commodity prices and the release of messy Canadian third-quarter GDP data, even as Rosenberg Research sees early indications that coming weakness will prove to be a" correction in an uptrend".

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 186.07 points, or 0.6%, to 31,382.78, having stood at near 30,300 at at the start of the week, with all sectors higher, led by Base Metals, up 1.8%.

Reflecting that in commodities, gold futures were up Friday afternoon on rising hopes for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Gold for February delivery was up $53.90 to US$4,256.20 per ounce, the highest since the Oct. 20 record high of US$4,359.40.

But, while the Energy sector was up more than 1%, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower as over-supply concerns continue and after overnight electronic trading was disrupted by a data outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). WTI crude oil for January delivery closed down $0.10 to settle at US$58.55 per barrel, while January Brent oil, was last seen down $0.14 to US$63.20.

Walter Murphy at Rosenberg Research published a 'technical analysis' on global equity markets' in which he noted the TSX has recently been consistently at, or near, all-time highs, and it has decisively broken out above what had been 30,198-29,378 Fibonacci resistance. As a result, Murphy said, that range will now be regarded as support, adding next resistance is arguably near 33,800.

"Meanwhile," Murphy said, "the weekly Coppock Curve is overbought and deteriorating, and could be in a confirmed downtrend as early as next week. The new downtrend would be expected to continue into January and perhaps into February, but it seems unlikely to break down through its neutral zero line. This is an early indication that the coming weakness will prove to be a correction in an uptrend."

"That said," Murphy added, "a Fibonacci 38.2%-61.8% retracement of the post-April uptrend would not be a surprise. Based on the gains to date, such a retracement allows for a challenge of 27,565-25,526. The lower end of that range is in line with April's breakout point."

On today's GDP data, National Bank said "the devil is in the details". It noted that after a quarter severely impacted by trade tensions, the Canadian economy returned to growth in Q3 with an annualized increase of 2.6%, surprising economists by a wide margin.

National Bank cited trade data as the main driver of this volatility, significantly boosting growth in the third quarter after holding it back in the second. This time around, the sharp drop in imports alone accounts for all the growth in the quarter, while exports essentially stagnated after last quarter's strong decline. National noted Statistics Canada pointed out that, given the U.S. government shutdown that took place in October, it did not receive data on Canadian exports to the U.S. for the final month of the quarter and thus resorted to special estimates. "As a result," National Bank said, "we will keep an eye on potentially larger than normal revisions to trade statistics in the coming months. In our view, it would be very premature to conclude, based on this morning's report, that the worst is over for the Canadian economy."

National Bank said economic growth was "certainly strong" in September at 0.2%, but added the 0.3% decline in October, according to preliminary figures, could mean disappointing economic performance in Q4. "This morning's report does not change our view that the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines. Despite a still fragile economy, inflationary pressures are too persistent for it to do more."

Elsewhere, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, asked himself: Could there be a messier set of GDP numbers? He answered with: "Not really."

Statcan, Holt noted, applied large upward revisions to GDP over 2022, 2023 and 2024, but did not mention GDP revisions in their website line-up of daily releases, nor in the prior write-ups for monthly and Q2 GDP reports where they usually flag coming revisions. Where, he asked, did they put it? "Buried," he said, "in a provincial GDP write-up where few macro watchers would bother to look. And yet this is probably the most important part of the overall set of numbers."

Holt noted annual GDP growth over the three years of 2022, 2023 and 2024 was revised up by about 0.5% each year. The level of GDP was revised up by a cumulative 1.7 percentage points by the end of 2024. "That's 'uuuuuge!," he said.

In summary Holt said: "Positive GDP revisions result in less slack, maybe a swing toward excess demand ... possibly leading the BoC to revise inflation forecasts slightly higher...and supporting our view the BoC is done cutting, next move an eventual hike."

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