Content and data provided by various third parties and Fidelity - Terms of Use
Print.Print
Small font size A Larger text size A Largest text size A

BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 11/28/25 07:42 AM EST

07:42 AM EST, 11/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada is slated to release Q3, September and preliminary October gross domestic product data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Real GDP likely recovered from a deep 1.6% a.r. contraction in Q2, with an estimated 0.5% annualized expansion in Q3, noted the bank. United States tariff uncertainty dissipated from its Q2 peak, but remains elevated in Canada in the absence of a trade deal.

Even so, net exports likely bounced from Q2's massive subtraction to growth. Thursday's reported improvement in the trade/current account balance Q3 points to upside risk to BMO's net exports and GDP calls, but all figures could be revised anyway as delayed data are released. Canada's exports to the U.S. are based on America's import data.

What didn't get a bounce was business investment as the uncertainty has limited firms' ability to plan for the future, weighing heavily on spending, stated the bank. Consumers, who have performed admirably in the face of a challenging economic backdrop, are expected to have taken a more cautious tack in Q3, after the prior quarter's spending binge pulled the savings rate down 1ppt.

The housing market continues to recover in fits and starts, with activity ticking up but still subdued in the quarter. BMO's call is a touch firmer than the flash estimate of 0.4% a.r. growth but in line with the Bank of Canada's October forecast.

The bank added that, for the monthly GDP figures, it's expecting 0.2% growth in September, a tenth stronger than the flash estimate. Manufacturing volumes rebounded to post their biggest gain in nearly three years, with wholesale activity also perking up after a weak August.

Air transport is expected to fly higher following the end of the Air Canada strike. However, soft retail volumes will partially offset the strength. Hours worked dipped despite a decent gain in employment, while housing activity also slipped in the month.

BMO will be watching October's flash estimate for an early read on Q4, with the Alberta teachers' strike expected to weigh on activity for the month.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

More Fixed Income News

All Fixed Income News

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

© 1998 – 2014 FMR LLC.

All rights reserved.
fir_news_article