FOREX-Yen falls despite rate hike talk; sterling steady in run up to UK budget

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 11/26/25 05:25 AM EST

*

BOJ eyes rate hike as soon as next month - sources

*

New Zealand dollar surges on hawkish RBNZ tilt

*

Traders anticipate December Fed cut, weigh new Fed chair

*

Sterling steadies ahead of UK budget announcement

(Updates with morning European trading)

By Ozan Ergenay and Rae Wee

SINGAPORE/LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The yen softened on Wednesday even as expectations rose that the Bank of Japan could hike rates next month, while sterling held steady ahead of Britain's budget and investors pondered what Kevin Hassett as next Fed chair could mean for the dollar.

The BOJ is preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as next month, sources told Reuters, reviving previous hawkish language as worries about sharp yen declines return and political pressure to keep rates low fades.

The yen initially rose on the back of the report, before reversing course. It became the worst performer against an otherwise weaker dollar, down 0.22% at 156.40 per dollar, having earlier hit an intraday high of 155.66.

The yen has been under pressure from worries about Japan's worsening fiscal position, with traders on alert to possible intervention from Tokyo to stem the currency's decline.

"There is a possibility of intervention over Thanksgiving, but if the market's fear of intervention is sufficient to stop dollar/yen from rising, it sort of reduces the possibility," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank London.

"But they have, in the past, intervened when liquidity was extremely light because they can get more bang for their buck, and that is why the market is fearing that they could do it towards the tail end of this week."

DOVISH FED PATH ON THE HORIZON

Elsewhere, the dollar was on the defensive after benign U.S. economic data reinforced expectations of a December rate cut, and as investors bet the leading candidate to be the next Federal Reserve chair may pursue a more dovish policy.

Bloomberg News reported that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to be the new chair.

Hassett, like Trump, has said interest rates should be lower than they are under Fed Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday there was a good chance Trump would announce his pick before Christmas.

A more Trump-aligned Fed chair could get investors worried about central bank independence again, with implications for the dollar.

"Dollar debasement risks are amplified so long as this perception of political(ly pliable) Fed Chair appointment is not dispelled," Mizuho analysts wrote in a note.

All of that left traders adding to bets of a Fed cut next month, with markets now pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point move, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

After rising 0.4% against the dollar on Tuesday, the euro steadied at $1.1571 on Wednesday.

Sterling was little changed at $1.3174, ahead of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget announcement.

NEW ZEALAND AND AUSSIE DOLLARS FIRM

The New Zealand dollar jumped after the country's central bank cut its interest rate to 2.25% as expected, but signalled an end to the easing cycle as the economy showed early signs of recovery.

The kiwi rose 1% to $0.5677, hitting its highest in over two weeks, as traders reduced expectations for further rate cuts.

The Australian dollar rose 0.48% to $0.6499 after Australian inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month in October, closing the door to further policy easing.

"We're getting to the point where a significant number in G10 (countries) have already potentially completed their rate cutting cycles, and where their next move could be interest rate hikes," Rabobank's Foley said. (Reporting by Ozan Ergenay and Rae Wee. Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Mark Potter)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article