Deutsche Bank raises 2026 gold price forecast to $4,450/oz

(Reuters) -Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,450 an ounce from $4,000 on Wednesday, citing stabilising investor flows and persistent central bank demand.

The bank now expects a $3,950-$4,950 range next year, with the top end about 14% above the current price of the December 2026 COMEX gold futures contract.

Deutsche Bank highlighted what it called a "positive structural picture," noting that central-bank buying and exchange-traded-fund (ETF) investment were absorbing a significant portion of supply, leaving less for the jewellery market, while total demand continues to outpace supply.

The bank also projected that ETF flows would help maintain a price floor next year, saying they "suggest $3,900/oz support will hold".

It added that years of undersupply in silver, platinum and palladium would improve their sensitivity to gold's strength, with elevated lease rates signalling ongoing tightness in the physical market.

The bank maintained its 2027 gold price forecast at $5,150, saying it "straddles the uncertainty" between business as usual and elevated official demand scenarios.

Key risks include gold's positive correlation with risk assets, the possibility of less U.S. Federal Reserve policy easing than markets expect in 2026 and the chance that reserve managers could slow their buying, Deutsche Bank warned.

Spot gold prices are up 59% this year, heading for their biggest annual gain since 1979. Bullion hit a record high of $4,381.21 per troy ounce on October 20. [GOL/]

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru. Editing by David Goodman and Mark Potter)