TSX Closer: The Index Rises to a Fresh Record; Up About 1,000 Points In Three Sessions

04:26 PM EST, 11/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a record high on Tuesday, rising for a third-straight session for total gains of near 1,000 points, even as TD Economics asked: "Why is the global economy resilient in the face of a historic increase in tariffs?".

The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 296.30 points, or 1%, at 30,900.65, topping the prior record close of 30,827.58 struck on Nov. 12. Most sectors were higher, led by the Battery Metals Index, up near 4.8%, and Industrials, up 1.6%. Energy was down 0.6%.

It is only the second record close of the month for the TSX, after it recorded at least six of them in October. According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet, going in to today, the index month to date was up 1.14%, and year to date up 5,876.41 points, or 23.76%. Going in to today it was up 22.09% from the day of U.S. President Trump's Inauguration on Monday, Jan. 20. Shortly after that his administration started to lay out its tariff policies.

TD Economics noted the U.S. effective tariff rate has risen rapidly to a historic high, yet the global economy has not faltered as much or as quickly as feared, with TD's global growth outlook largely unchanged from September. It cited a few reasons behind the resilience.

First, TD said, the implementation of tariffs has been gradual, with businesses exhibiting caution in immediately adjusting consumer prices amidst the uncertainty and the potential for renegotiated trade deals. "On top of this," it added, "the actual tariffs collected have come in lower than the announced rates, for a variety of reasons. Supply chains have substituted away from higher-tariff imports, the U.S. administration has adjusted for imports deemed critical, and there have been implementation delays in duty collection. The actual duties collected as a share of U.S. imports clock in at around 9% rather than the 18% effective tariff rate. This gap has softened the blow."

Second, TD said, since realized tariffs are lower than the announced rates, the knock-on effect to inflation has likewise been more muted. The bank noted companies have absorbed much of the tariffs in their margins, sparing consumers from the bulk of the price increase.

In another observation, TD said import prices for some heavily tariffed sectors have fallen, which is usually a sign that foreign exporters are also bearing some of the cost, particularly for motor vehicles and consumer goods. "Companies that are absorbing the price increases may eventually pass a greater portion to consumers, but that ultimately depends on their confidence for consumers to pay for the higher sticker price. Right now, that seems low. Much of the Main Street rhetoric is centered on grievances over the higher cost of living," TD added.

Finally, TD said, the global economy has benefited from some offsetting tailwinds. It noted tech-related investment in software, computers, and related equipment has contributed a large part to U.S. GDP growth in 2025. "Soaring stock market valuations and slightly lower interest rates have facilitated larger investments as firms compete in artificial intelligence technology adoption," it added.

Outside of the United States, TD said, central banks have lowered policy rates to a greater extent, and financial conditions have been favorable. It noted China has been on the brunt of the highest tariff rates, and yet defied expectations due to the cascading effects of government support measures from the prior year. TD still expects tariffs to drag growth in China, but added "the effect is folding into the economy in a more gradual fashion, particularly with the recent announcement of a one-year tariff-truce with the United States."

Of commodities, gold traded late afternoon Tuesday on rising hopes for December rate cut from the Federal Reserve while a delayed report on U.S. wholesale price inflation in September matched expectations.

Gold for February delivery was last seen up $35.20 to US$4,166.00 per ounce.

But West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped following reports that Ukraine and Russia are closer to a potential peace deal, even if both sides are also reportedly saying that more talks are needed. WTI crude oil for January delivery closed down $0.89 to settle at US$57.95 per barrel, while January Brent crude was down $0.92 to US$62.45.

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