US Equity Indexes Rise as Falling Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales Keep Rate-Cut Bets Elevated

01:49 PM EST, 11/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes rose in midday trading on Tuesday as bets for a third consecutive interest-rate cut in December remained elevated following declines in consumer confidence and retail sales.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.2% to 47,006.7, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% to 6,754.3 and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5% to 22,977.1.

All but three sectors, technology, energy, and utilities, rose. Healthcare, consumer discretionary, and materials were among the top gainers.

The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence declined to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October, compared with 93.3 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. "The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

The US Census Bureau's retail sales report showed a 0.2% increase in September, below a revised 0.6% jump in August and consensus for a 0.4% gain.

The producer price index rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, rebounding from a 0.1% drop in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The consensus in a survey compiled by Bloomberg was for a 0.3% increase. Annually, the PPI was unchanged at 2.7%, above the consensus for a 2.6% increase.

"The latest read on inflation is likely to intensify the ongoing debate among Fed officials as to their next policy move," Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said in a note. "While inflation held steady in September, posting no additional upward momentum on an annual basis, the lack of downward improvement from a still-elevated level raises concerns any further policy easing could risk an acceleration of price pressures, or at the very least, stunt potential gains back towards the 2% target."

Meanwhile, ADP's weekly measure of private payrolls showed a preliminary average decrease of 13,500 jobs in the four weeks ending on Nov. 8. "Consumer strength remains in question as we enter the holiday hiring season, which might be playing into delayed or curtailed job creation," ADP said.

Markets are pricing in an 85% probability that the Fed, which has already delivered two back-to-back rate cuts this year, will reduce its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point on Dec. 10, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Most US Treasury yields fell, reflecting the relatively high likelihood that the Fed will ease policy next month. The 10-year retreated four basis points to 4%, the lowest in November. The two-year yield fell 2.8 basis points to 3..46%.

Gold futures jumped 1.2% to $4,142.01, and silver futures jumped 1.4% to $51.02 amid expectations of a Fed leaning dovish.

In energy markets too, the price action reflected concern about economic growth as West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures slumped 2% to $57.74 a barrel.

In company news, shares of semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 3.7%, among the steepest decliners in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow, after The Information reported Meta Platforms (META) is contemplating using artificial intelligence chips designed by Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Google (GOOG) unit.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , also a chipmaker, sank 6.8%, the worst performer on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

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