Scotiabank Sees Canada's Q3 GDP Around 0.5% Despite Data Gaps

10:50 AM EST, 11/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will report gross domestic product for Q3 Friday, plus detailed figures for the month of September, and the preliminary estimate for October with no details, said Scotiabank.

Q3 growth is likely to land around 0.5% quarter over quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) on an expenditure-accounts basis that fully accounts for net trade and inventory effects, noted the bank. That's basically "stall speed."

Investors' ability to estimate Q3 growth is limited by virtue of the fact that trade figures from August and September are still missing due to the United States government shutdown and its effects on Statistics Canada, stated Scotiabank.

Inventory figures are also incomplete.

As a consequence, one should treat the estimates with wider brackets than normal and with higher revision risk than normal once StatsCan more fully assesses the trade picture, added the bank.

Still, anything around that reading wouldn't surprise the Bank of Canada, pointed out Scotiabank. It forecast 0.5% Q3 growth in the October Monetary Policy Report.

As for the monthlies, StatsCan had previously guided that September growth would be tracking at about 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted (SA). Scotiabank bumped that up a bit to 0.2% given the data since that guidance was provided.

As for October, hours worked fell in each of September and October by 0.2% month-over-month SA, partly because of the Canada Post strike from about late-September to mid-October, and the Alberta teachers' strike, according to the bank. Both of those strikes carried direct and indirect effects. It will be important to assess growth independent of estimated impacts.

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