BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

07:45 AM EST, 11/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will publish the advance look at wholesale trade for October at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

There are two provincial fiscal updates on deck later on Tuesday, from Quebec and Saskatchewan, noted the bank.

The province of Quebec was expecting an $11.4 billion deficit in its 2025 budget, which weighs in at 1.8% of gross domestic product. That document was tabled in late March, right in the thick of the United States tariff uncertainty, pointed out BMO.

That budget was based on the assumption that 10% tariffs on Canadian imports to the U.S. would be in place for two years, which is proving to be a reasonable middle-ground assumption at this point, although Quebec specifically has been hit much harder with steel and aluminum tariffs, stated the bank.

BMO will see what the impact is on the bottom line, as the bank currently sees Quebec's economy undershooting budget forecasts, at least for real GDP growth.

The province of Saskatchewan will also post an update on Tuesday. The deficit in that province was last estimated at $349 million, or a small 0.3% of GDP. In fact, these two fiscal updates should provide a stark contrast between provinces like Quebec, where the tariff dispute is hitting hard, and those like Saskatchewan, where the direct impact is significantly smaller, added BMO.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) starts Tuesday at $1.412/USD (70.8 US cents), according to the bank.

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