Rate Cut Odds Rise To 81% As Cryptocurrency Bettors On Polymarket Weigh In Dovish Signals From Fed Officials

Cryptocurrency punters are leaning toward the possibility that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates next month.

The Mood In Prediction Markets

The odds of a 25 basis point cut surged to 81% on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, up from 67% the day before and 44% the week before. The probability of a 50 bps cut, however, stood at a modest 2%.

On the other hand, the odds that rates will remain unchanged from the current 3.75%-4.00% range plunged from 30% to 18% in a span of 24 hours.

Over $159 million has been wagered on the outcome. The decisions on the target federal funds rate range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, with the next one, and the last of the year, planned for December 10.

See Also: Polymarket Rival Kalshi’s Valuation Soars To $11 Billion After $1 Billion Reported Fundraise

Similarly, bettors on Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction platform, priced in 81% odds for a 25 basis point decrease.

These bets were roughly consistent with the CME FedWatch tracker, which estimated an 84% chance of the central bank announcing a 25 bps cut.

Stocks, Cryptos Lift On Optimism

The jump in odds comes after dovish comments from Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams. The renewed optimism lifted both stock and cryptocurrency markets, sending assets like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) higher.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said the delayed September jobs report “may have sealed a 25 bps cut at the December 9?10 FOMC meeting.”

Notably, legendary Wall Street investor Bill Gross also projected a rate cut next month.

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