UBS raises copper outlook as mine disruptions deepen supply deficits

(Reuters) -UBS expects copper prices to rise into next year, citing tightening supply from persistent mine disruptions and strong long-term demand from electrification and clean-energy investment, the bank said in a note on Friday.

In its updated projections, UBS raised its March 2026 price forecast by $750 per metric ton to $11,500, increased its June and September 2026 targets by $1,000 a ton to $12,000 and $12,500, respectively, and introduced a new December 2026 target of $13,000 per ton.

UBS also raised its market deficit forecasts to 230,000 tons in 2025, up from 53,000 tons previously, and to 407,000 tons in 2026, up from 87,000 tons before, saying falling inventories and persistent supply risks will keep conditions tight.

The bank said mine disruptions this year, including production issues at Freeport-McMoRan's (FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slower output recovery in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru underscore structural supply constraints that are likely to extend into 2026.

Last week, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) said it planned to restore production at Indonesia's Grasberg copper and gold mine by July after a fatal incident forced operations to halt two months ago.

UBS trimmed its refined copper production growth estimates to 1.2% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, citing grade declines and operational challenges.

It expects global copper demand to grow 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, supported by electric vehicles, renewable energy, power-grid investment and data centres.

The bank said any price weakness should be short-lived and recommended remaining long copper or using volatility-selling strategies.

The most-active copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed daytime trade up 0.09% at 86,080 yuan ($12,112.68) per metric ton.

(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)