CIBC Still Sees BoC On the Sidelines With Rates After Today's Retail Sales Update

09:04 AM EST, 11/21/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Over at CIBC, Andrew Grantham said Friday's retail sales data doesn't change the view that the Bank of Canada will move to the sidelines and hold interest rates steady at its December meeting.

Grantham noted Canadian retail sales fell as expected in September, and advance data suggested there was no rebound to be seen in October. However, he said the details were "a little more positive", with much of the headline drop driven by the volatile auto component.

Among highlights, Grantham noted core sales (ex auto and gasoline) were little changed on the month, with gains in sporting goods and food stores offset by declines in building equipment and clothing. Total retail sales volumes fell by 0.8% in September, and were down by a modest 0.3% (unannualized) for Q3 as a whole, although that decline follows solid growth earlier in the year. The advance estimate for October suggested headline sales were little changed to start Q4.

"Overall," Grantham said, "Canadian consumer spending doesn't appear to be particularly strong, but also isn't as weak as we would likely have expected given an unemployment rate close to 7%."

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