Canada's Housing Market Hasn't Reached Bottom, Says Rosenberg Research

11:28 AM EST, 11/20/2025 (MT Newswires) -- There was an increase in Canadian existing home sales in October, but the fundamental trends remain bearish as both sales and prices are down on a year-over-year basis, said Rosenberg Research.

New listings have risen as much as sales have declined over the past 12 months, adding to the nationwide unsold inventory and creating the demand-supply conditions for more price erosion down the road, noted Rosenberg Research.

Household debt remains at elevated levels, keeping debt service costs high despite the recent Bank of Canada easing, pointed out Rosenberg.

Even with the Bank of Canada cutting rates three times this year to 2.25%, the grim reality is that nobody outside of the banks borrows at this rate. The average effective interest rate has been stuck near 5.0% since February, and that is punishingly high in real terms, considering that inflation is running closer to +2.0%.

Mortgage delinquencies are rising amid signs of strain on household balance sheets, added Rosenberg. The number of mortgages in arrears and the level of personal insolvencies have both risen by more than 10% in the past year.

The shrinking number of first-time buyers is a demographic constraint, and when combined with high youth unemployment, this is a major secular pressure working against home price appreciation, according to Rosenberg.

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