September US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 50,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Steady

02:45 PM EST, 11/19/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 50,000 in September after a 22,000-jobs gain in the previous month, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The September employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Thursday after being delayed for almost two months by the federal government shutdown.

Layoffs intentions slowed in September from August, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, with the services sector adding the most to the overall total.

The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 65,000 in September after a jobs gain of 38,000 in August. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls fell by 29,000 jobs in September.

Initial claims were slightly lower in the mid-September employment survey week than in the mid-August survey week while insured claims were significantly lower.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 32% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in September, the same as in August.

On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's September consumer confidence survey released on Tuesday fell to 26.9% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" fell to 18.2%.

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in September after a 0.3% gain in August, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to remain at 3.7%. The average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.2 hours.

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