Canadian Home Sales Rise in October, Says TD

10:24 AM EST, 11/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian existing home sales increased 0.9% month-on-month in October, partially reversing September's 1.6% month-over-month decline, said TD.

Increases in British Columbia (+2% month over month), Alberta (1.8% month over month), and Quebec (+2.7% m/m) helped lift national sales. Meanwhile, sales dipped in Ontario (-0.7% month over month), Saskatchewan (-4.3% month over month) and Manitoba (-5%).

Canadian new listings declined 1.4% month over month in October. With sales rising and new listings dropping, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened up a touch.

However, at 52.2%, the ratio remained below its long-term average, suggesting sub-trend Canadian average home price growth is in the cards for the near-term, pointed out TD.

Average home prices edged 0.2% month-over-month higher in October. Prices were up notably in B.C. (+1.3% month over month), Alberta (+3.3%) and Quebec (+2.1%). In contrast, prices declined 0.8% month over month in Ontario. Elsewhere, prices were flat, on average, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the Atlantic.

The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, increased 0.2% month over month, matching the rise in average prices and marking the strongest monthly gain since November 2024. However, it was still down 3% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were up 0.3% month over month, while condo prices dipped 0.1% -- the smallest such drop since July of last year.

Canadian housing markets firmed up a bit in October, with sales rising, and benchmark and average prices edging higher. Canadian home sales have now climbed for six of the last seven months, leaving the recovery narrative in Canadian housing firmly intact, stated the bank.

That said, sales levels are still relatively low - dragged down by B.C. and, especially, Ontario - so TD would be hard pressed to call the recovery robust. Moving forward, the bank sees sales continuing to grind higher, supported by pent-up demand, and some improvement in the job markets next year.

This improving demand backdrop should keep Canadian average home price growth in positive territory, backed by tight supply/demand balances across much of the country. In contrast, market balances favor buyers in B.C. and Ontario, which should keep price growth restrained in these markets for the next several months, according to TD.

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