CIBC Doesn't See October's CPI Bringing Bank of Canada Into Action

08:49 AM EST, 11/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian inflation eased in October, although only partly offsetting the pickup seen in the previous month, said CIBC after Monday's release on the consumer price index data.

The 0.2% month-over-month increase in unadjusted prices -- 0.1% month over month after seasonal adjustment (SA) -- saw the year-over-year pace ease to 2.2%, from 2.4% in September.

However, that was a little firmer than expected as consensus was for 2.1% year over year, and only partly offset the prior month's acceleration (year-over-year inflation was 1.9% in August).

Gasoline prices saw a larger year-over-year decline in October than in the prior month, while food inflation decelerated modestly. However, prices for cellular services jumped and were up on a year-over-year basis for the first time since April 2023. That contributed to a firmer than expected 0.3% SA increase in excluding food/energy prices, although CPI-Trim and CPI-Median both posted tamer increases, stated the bank.

Overall, while inflation decelerated in October, the move was in line with expectations and it would take a longer period of easing price pressures, combined with indications of economic growth deteriorating again, to bring the Bank of Canada back off the sidelines, added CIBC.

The bank continues to forecast no change in the BoC overnight rate through to the end of next year.

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