BMO on The Day, Week Ahead in Canada

07:39 AM EST, 11/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the consumer price index for October at 8:30 a.m. on Monday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Consumer prices likely rose modestly in October, with a sharp 5% drop in gasoline prices weighing heavily. The bank's call for a 0.1% month-over-month increase will pull inflation down four ticks to 2.0% year over year. Shelter looks to slow amid ongoing Bank of Canaa rate cuts -- though October's move will have a greater impact in November -- falling home prices and slowing population growth dampening rental demand.

BMO will watch clothing prices, which fell in September, marking the first time they dropped in that month since 1998. October hasn't seen a decline since 2008, so a further dip would spark questions about consumers' health.

The bank also pointed out that core inflation (CPI Trim & Median) looks to be up 0.1%-to-0.2% month over month, which would cut the yearly rates by one-to-two ticks, leaving both measures at 3.0% year over year.

BMO will also be watching inflation breadth for insight on underlying inflation, with only modest improvement in recent months. Other core measures are expected to slow by a couple of tenths as well, with CPIX down to +2.6% year over year and CPI excluding food and energy to +2.2% year over year.

Also, out at 08:30 a.m. ET Monday, the September reports on international securities transactions and new motor vehicle sales, added the bank. For the former, August had net inflows of $25.9 billion and net outflows of $19.5 billion. For the latter, they are expected to rise 2.5% year over year after edging up 0.5% in August.

Later this week, the key release is retail sales for October due on Friday.

Earlier Monday, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) published existing home sales for October. Canadian home sales tick up as rate cuts draw more buyers: Canadian home sales have now increased for six of the past seven months, as declining interest rates and cheaper mortgage rates prompt more buyers off the sidelines. There were 40,423 homes sold nationally in October, a 0.9% increase from September, but still 4.3% below October 2024. The report found that new listings decreased by 1.4% to 77,479 units from September to October.

The US dollar (USD) is firmer (BBDXY +0.12%) with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) a shade softer (CAD per USD +0.03%), accoring to BMO.

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