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RBC Sees Canada Inflation Cooling in October as Gasoline Costs Drop

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 11/17/25 06:01 AM EST

06:01 AM EST, 11/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the consumer price index data for October at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday, said RBC.

The bank forecasts headline inflation to edge down to a 2.1% year-over-year rate, following last month's upside surprise. This moderation is expected to be primarily driven by lower gasoline prices, which fell 5% from September.

RBC expects food price growth to hold close to September's 3.8% annual rate in October. The October data will include the annual update on property tax prices in the CPI data. Significant property tax increases again took effect in some major population centers, but nationally, the bank estimates a smaller increase (4%) than the 6% increase in October a year ago.

Headline CPI growth continues to be distorted on the downside by the removal of the carbon tax from energy products in most provinces in April, stated RBC. Broader measures of 'core' inflation are expected to remain above the Bank of Canada's 2% target rate in October.

The bank looks for the price growth excluding food and energy products to hold at a 2.4% year-over-year rate. CPI-trim and CPI-median measures should hold around a 3% year-over-year rate.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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