ABN Amro Sees China's GDP Growth Slowing Down Next Year, in 2027

10:20 AM EST, 11/13/2025 (MT Newswires) -- ABN Amro said it assumes that stepped-up targeted stimulus in China will be mainly about containing the downturn.

Particularly against the background of the ongoing United States-China power play, it's unlikely that Beijing would tolerate a sharp deceleration in annual gross domestic product growth next year, noted the bank.

ABN Amro slightly revised its quarterly growth profile, assuming targeted stimulus will contribute to a modest pickup in quarter-over-quarter growth in the first half of 2026.

That said, the bank still expects full-year annual growth to slow, dropping to 4.6%, which was revised upwards from 4.3%, next year and to 4.3% in 2027. ABN Amro forecasts China GDP to expand 5.0% this year.

Downside risks to these forecasts include a re-escalation of trade/tech/chokepoint tensions with the United States/West and other geopolitical scenarios -- such as an intensifying conflict with Taiwan -- which could accelerate further decoupling.

Another downside risk is a lack of effective measures to rebalance and support the demand side.

In terms of upside risks, it's possible that a longer detente in U.S.-China relations leads to a sharper recovery in bilateral trade, added the bank. On the domestic side, a virtuous cycle could arise if a stabilizing property sector and an improving labor market -- coupled with more stimulus -- were to drive a sharper improvement in domestic demand than ABN Amro anticipates in its base case.

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