October US Median Inflation Expectations Slowed for Short Term, Stable for Medium Term, According to NY Fed Survey

11:26 AM EST, 11/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Consumer expectations for one-year US inflation growth slowed to a 3.2% gain in October from a 3.4% gain in the previous month, according to a survey released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Friday.

The median inflation expectations remained at a 3.0% gain for the three-year period for the sixth straight month and remained at a 3.0% gain for five years ahead.

The median inflation uncertainty was unchanged from a 3.3% in the one-year horizon and slowed to 3.3% from 3.4% for the three-year outlook.

Median home price change expectations remained at 3.0% for the sixth consecutive month while home price uncertainty increased to 4% from a 3.9% increase in the previous month.

The median one-year expectations commodity prices growth slowed for gas and food, but increased for medical care, rent, cost of college education and gold.

Median earnings growth expectations accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% while the mean probability of losing job slowed to 14% from 14.9%. The mean probability of leaving job slowed to 18.8% from 20.7% and the mean probability of finding job fell to 46.8% from 47.4%.

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