BMO Says Canada's Provincial GDP to See Chunky Upward Revisions for 2022-2024

12:32 PM EST, 11/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Statistics Canada released the provincial gross domestic product numbers for 2024 that suggest investors will see some "chunky" upward revisions to growth -- on the order of half a percentage point per year from 2022 to 2024 -- when the national figures are published later this month, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

This is the second straight year of sizeable upward revisions, leaving the economic backdrop a bit brighter heading into the trade war with the United States, noted the bank. The Canadian economy now expanded 4.7% in 2022 from a prior 4.2% and 2.0% in 2023 and 2024 -- previously 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively.

For 2024, the largest revisions were in New Brunswick (+0.9 ppts to 2.7%) and Manitoba (+0.6 ppts to 1.7%). Saskatchewan (-0.4 ppts to 3.0%) and British Columbia (-0.1 ppt to 1.1%) were the only two provinces to face downward adjustments. The relative rankings have changed somewhat: PEI (+3.8%) still tops the pack, but B.C. now brings up the rear.

This was a period of major population growth for the country, pointed out BMO. These refreshed figures suggest per capita growth didn't weaken as much as initially feared, although the bank will know more when the quarterly numbers are released, as immigration targets were tightened in Q4.

While these GDP numbers are firmly in the rearview mirror, they point to better-than-expected momentum heading into a turbulent 2025 for the Canadian economy, added BMO.

With interest rates already at the bottom end of neutral, this report is another reason for the Bank of Canada to remain cautious ahead of the December policy meeting, according to BMO.

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