Scotiabank Previews This Week's Jobs Report in Canada

12:04 PM EST, 11/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada updates job market conditions with the Labour Force Survey for October on Friday, said Scotiabank.

It's one of two readings before the next Bank of Canada decision on Dec. 10th, which dampens some of its significance to markets. So does the fact that the BoC just set a very high bar against returning with further easing in its latest communications, noted the bank.

After a surprise 60,000 jobs were created in September, it's reasonable to expect some payback in the context of present macroeconomic uncertainties, stated Scotiabank. Much of that gain was narrowly focused on Alberta but had otherwise solid details, even if the gain in manufacturing jobs was kind of sus.

The bank's estimate is a loss of about 25,000. The unemployment rate may be stable through offsetting effects on the pool of labor.

One added reason is that October's seasonal adjustment factor tends to shave unadjusted jobs and when combined with what is likely to be on the low end of seasonally unadjusted figures for like months of October, the most probable outcome is a material drop in seasonally adjusted jobs, pointed out the bank.

Further, surveys like the Ivey PMI and the CFIB's small business hiring plans point toward downside risk to jobs over the coming months.

Scotiabank also kept a keen eye on the numbers Ottawa's budget provides for public sector layoffs and how they seek to achieve them, such as through attrition or outright packages.

If such expectations are anywhere close to reality, then they would restore a weak pattern for employment markets. Canada lost about 41,000 jobs in July, then another 66,000 in August before regaining 60,000 in September.

Hours worked may also be dented by the teacher's strike in Alberta and Canada Post workers returning to work but at less than seasonally regular hours.

Average hourly earnings of permanent employees are running at 3.6% year over year and less than that more recently. That's an incomplete picture of wage growth in Canada, added Scotiabank. Since one-third of the workforce is governed by collective bargaining decisions, the lagging catch-up pay being sought by labor unions is important to consider, as it drives persistent gains materially above the rate of inflation.

The average contract period is usually around four years, which means a large portion of the workforce will receive sustained gains in the years ahead.

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