CANADA FX DEBT-Canadian dollar hits a near three-week low on wider yield spreads

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 11/03/25 02:37 PM EST

(Updates at market close)

*

Canadian dollar falls 0.3% against the greenback

*

Touches its weakest since October 14 at 1.4075

*

Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.6 in October

*

10-year yield rises 3.1 basis points to 3.152%

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened to a near three-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as recent widening in the gap between Canadian and U.S. short-term yields weighed on the loonie.

The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at 1.4055 per U.S. dollar, or 71.15 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since October 14 at 1.4075.

"The main driving force we see leading USD-CAD at the moment is the 2-year yield spread," said Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco. "It remains the strongest correlation factor in our USD-CAD fair value model."

The Canadian 2-year yield was trading 119 basis points below the equivalent U.S. rate, compared to a gap of 92 basis points in late August. Investors tend to favor the higher-yielding currency.

Last week, the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate to a three-year low of 2.25% to support the economy which has been badly hampered by the U.S.-led trade war.

The downturn in Canada's manufacturing sector eased in October as output and new orders declined at a slower pace. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.6 last month from 47.7 in September, posting its highest level since January. The U.S. dollar extended its recent gains against a basket of major currencies on doubts about prospects of another Federal Reserve rate cut this year. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, was down 0.2% at $60.84 a barrel as the market balanced the latest OPEC+ supply increase with the group's plans to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026.

Canadian bond yields moved higher across the curve, with the 10-year up 3.1 basis points at 3.152%.

Analysts expect Canada's budget, due on Tuesday, to show the fiscal deficit widening. (Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Nia Williams)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article