CIBC's Week Ahead Market Call For Canada

02:37 PM EDT, 10/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Over at CIBC, Avery Shenfeld is expecting to see an employment report next Friday that's "roughly in line with the tame six month pace", but also potentially just enough to keep the jobless rate at an elevated 7.1% pace. "If so," he said, "that might undo a bit of a sting from a disappointing August GDP report." CIBC forecasts a 10k gain for the month, while consensus is for a drop of 20k, and 7.2% level.

Interest rate watch will continue Monday when Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, will take part in a 'Fireside Chat' at the The Logic Summit, Toronto, Ontario, at 1.30pm ET, to talk about the state of the Canadian economy. The Governor's remarks will not be published; audio and video webcasts will be available.

Shenfeld's guess is that Macklem "might want to try to undo some of the hawkish market reaction to their rate announcement, by sounding a bit less definitive about whether they are done or not. "Even if a steady 2.25% overnight rate is the most likely outcome, the central bank can't be so sure of that when the whole macro outlook is still this uncertain," the CIBC man said.

Tuesday comes the federal budget. Shenfeld said a deficit in the $80-90 billion range for fiscal 2025-2026 "shouldn't create any major waves in the bond market, provided the budget shows a credible path to lower deficits ahead."

(Also on the calendar for next week is an auction of $13.4 billion in 3-M Bills, $4.8 billion in 6-M Bills and $4.8 billion in 1-YR Bills on Tuesday; and auctions of $5.3 billion in 5-YR Canadas on Wednesday and $5.3 billion in 10-YR Canadas on Thursday. We will also get October IVEY PMI on Thursday.)

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