Canadian Economy Contracts 0.3% in August; StatsCan Sees Modest Rebound in September

08:45 AM EDT, 10/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Real gross domestic product contracted 0.3% in August, offsetting most of July's 0.3% expansion, with decreases in goods-producing and services-producing industries, Statistics Canada said Friday.

StatsCan added that advance information indicates that real GDP increased 0.1% in September, with increases in finance and insurance, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing partially offset by decreases in wholesale trade and retail trade. Owing to its preliminary nature, this estimate will be updated on November 28, 2025, with the release of the official GDP by industry estimates for September, the agency said.

With this advance estimate for September, StatsCan said information on real GDP by industry suggests that the economy edged up 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025. The official estimate for the third quarter will also be available on November 28, 2025, when the official estimates of GDP by income and expenditure are released.

On the August numbers, StatsCan said goods-producing industries declined 0.6%, marking this aggregate's fifth contraction since the beginning of the year. Services-producing industries edged down 0.1%, marking this aggregate's first decline in six months, driven by contractions in transportation and warehousing and in wholesale trade.

BMO was expecting the economy would be "little changed" for August, in line with a flat flash estimate published by StatCan. Scotia said its tracking had pointed toward a "mild dip" of 0.1% m/m SA.

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