China needs 4.17% annual GDP growth to meet 2035 goal, publication shows

BEIJING, Oct 31 (Reuters) - China is confident it will achieve an annual average growth rate of 4.17% over the next decade, the level needed for it to become a medium-level developed country in terms of GDP per capita by 2035, said an official book outlining proposals for the next five-year plan.

"Based on the goal of China's per capita gross domestic product reaching more than $20,000 by 2035 ... and considering that the total population is expected to decrease by about 0.2% annually by 2035, China's GDP needs to grow at an average annual rate of 4.17%," during the next 10 years, the book said.

China was "fully qualified" to reach that level of growth given its technological progress and institutional innovation, it added.

The publication, reviewed by Reuters on Friday, includes articles written by Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng and Finance Minister Lan Foan to explain policy initiatives following Beijing's release of the 15th Five-Year Plan on Tuesday. The Communist Party elites map out key economic and other policy goals every five years.

President Xi Jinping has laid out a long-term vision of "Chinese-style modernisation", with a goal of doubling the size of China's economy by 2035 from 2020.

China is unlikely to unveil a specific growth target for 2026-2030, in line with the previous document which omitted the goal for the first time, but policymakers may still aim for annual growth of at least 4.5%, analysts say.

The economy grew at an average annual pace of 5.4% from 2021 to 2024, despite the impact of COVID-19, official data showed.

Analysts say China is on track to achieve its annual growth target of around 5% this year, supported by policy stimulus measures and resilient exports, and aided by a trade truce with the United States.

In the proposals for the next five-year plan, Chinese leaders pledged to build a modern industrial system and step up efforts to achieve technological self-reliance, but also signalled a shift towards supporting consumption. (Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao; Editing by Kate Mayberry)