Rosenberg Research Expects Bank of Canada to Cut Rates Again Wednesday, Says Economy Still Stagnating

08:37 AM EDT, 10/29/2025 (MT Newswires) -- In case investors are wondering whether the Bank of Canada will cut rates again later Wednesday, Rosenberg Research's answer is clear: "Of course it will."

The BoC is scheduled to release its policy statement at 9:45 a.m. ET Wednesday.

The central bank's language is likely to indicate that more reductions are on the way, according to Rosenberg Research. The BoC's own forecast calls for near stall-speed real GDP growth of around 1% annualized in the second half of this year and a weak outlook for 2026.

Wednesday's cut would lower the policy rate to 2.25% from 2.5%, less than half of the 5% cycle peak, Rosenberg noted. Historically, each of the past five easing cycles over the last 25 years saw the overnight rate bottom out at 2% or lower.

So, nothing really untoward here, added Rosenberg. The BoC is clearly pushing on a string. Since it began the rate-cutting program in the summer of 2024, real GDP growth has only averaged around a 1.0% annual rate, which is well below potential.

The unemployment rate has risen from 6.4% to 7.1%, tied for a four-year high.

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