US Dollar Rises Early Wednesday; Focus on Pending FOMC Rate Decision

07:42 AM EDT, 10/29/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Wednesday as markets focus their attention on the Federal Open Market Committee's post-meeting statement at 2:00 pm ET and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm ET.

There is a 99.9% chance of 25 basis point interest rate reduction being priced in according to the CME's Fed Watch tool, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00% from the current 4.00% to 4.25% range. There is a 0.1% chance of no change to the target range.

Pending home sales data for September are due at 10:00 am ET, followed by weekly oil stocks inventory data at 10:30 am ET and an update to the Atlanta Fed's gross domestic product Nowcast estimate around midday.

Earlier Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications surged in the week ended Oct. 24 as average 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in more than a year.

Advance trade data for September will not be released due to the ongoing government shutdown.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Wednesday:

EUR/USD fell to 1.1647 from 1.1653 at the Tuesday US close and 1.1665 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Wednesday's schedule, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at 3:30 pm ET, one day before the ECB's policy board meeting. No change in interest rates is expected at Thursday's meeting.

GBP/USD fell to 1.3221 from 1.3274 at the Tuesday US close and 1.3318 at the same time Tuesday morning. The level of UK consumer credit usage declined in September but mortgage lending rose in the same month, according to data released earlier Wednesday. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Nov. 6.

USD/JPY rose to 152.2690 from 152.0616 at the Tuesday US close and 151.9553 at the same time Tuesday morning. Japanese household confidence rose in October, according to data released overnight. The Bank of Japan is expected leave its target interest rate unchanged when its statement is released at 10:30 pm ET Wednesday evening.

USD/CAD rose to 1.3942 from 1.3937 at the Tuesday US close but was below a level of 1.3996 at the same time Tuesday morning. The Bank of Canada is expected to lower its target rate by 25 basis points in its announcement at 9:45 am ET. There are no Canadian data on Wednesday's schedule.

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