Scotiabank Sees Canada's Economy Still Adding Slack in This Week's GDP Data

08:24 AM EDT, 10/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Investors will get a more complete picture of the performance of the Canadian economy when gross domestic product figures arrive on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, said Scotiabank.

August and September estimates will firm up estimates for overall Q3 GDP, noted the bank.

The August figures will include revisions to the initial guidance from Statistics Canada that the economy was

"essentially unchanged" that month.

Scotiabank's tracking points toward a "mild" dip of 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted (SA). The figures for August will also include sector details.

StatsCan had said that "Increases in wholesale trade and retail trade were offset by decreases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing."

Key, however, may be the first estimate for September without details that will be released on Friday, added the bank. There is very little information available for the month.

Scotiabank knows that hours worked dipped by 0.2% month-over-month SA and since GDP is hours times labor productivity, this points to downside risk. Retail sales also reversed August's gain, while existing home sales also dipped, but vehicle sales accelerated.

The overall picture is one of an economy that may be posting very little growth in Q3, according to Scotiabank. Based on monthly GDP estimates, growth could be around 0.75% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) after GDP contracted in Q2 despite strong consumption and strong final domestic demand.

As a consequence, Canada's economy continues to open up a "modest" amount of slack.

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