US Dollar Falls Early Monday; Focus on FOMC Meeting

07:50 AM EDT, 10/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Monday as the US data schedule continues to be impacted by the ongoing government shutdown.

The focus this week will be on Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee announcement following conclusion of the two-day meeting, with expectations of a further interest rate reduction from the current range of 4.00% to 4.25%.

There is a 96.7% chance of 25 basis point interest rate reduction being priced in according to the CME's Fed Watch tool, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. There is a 3.3% chance of no change to the target range, leaving it at 4.00% to 4.25%.

The Dallas Federal Reserve's manufacturing reading for October will be released at 10:30 am ET and the Atlanta Fed is due to update its gross domestic product Nowcast estimate around midday. Durable goods orders data for September will not be released.

Highlights Tuesday include weekly Redbook retail sales data, home price data for August and consumer confidence data for October.

Wednesday's highlights include pending home sales data for September and weekly petroleum stocks inventory data before the FOMC's announcement in the afternoon.

In the absence of weekly jobless claims data and the first look at Q3 GDP, the only key data Thursday will be weekly natural gas stocks inventories.

Friday's highlights include Chicago purchasing managers' index data for October, and updates to the Atlanta and St. Louis Fed's GDP nowcast reports, with the notable absence of personal income and spending data for September and Q3 employment cost data.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Monday:

EUR/USD rose to 1.1644 from 1.1633 at the Friday US close and 1.1613 at the same time Friday morning. Eurozone 12-month private sector loan growth accelerated in September, according to data released earlier Monday. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Thursday, when no change in interest rates is expected.

GBP/USD rose to 1.3344 from 1.3316 at the Friday US close and 1.3311 at the same time Friday morning. UK retail activity continued to contract in October, according to data released earlier Monday. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Nov. 6.

USD/JPY fell to 152.7112 from 152.7721 at the Friday US close and 152.9452 at the same time Friday morning. There were no Japanese data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, with the results of the meeting scheduled to be released Wednesday evening US time. No change in interest rates is expected.

USD/CAD fell to 1.3976 from 1.3996 at the Friday US close and 1.4028 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Canadian data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, when a 25 basis point rate reduction is expected.

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