CIBC Sees Bank of Canada Cutting Rates by 25bps Next Week in Final Easing Reduction

07:06 AM EDT, 10/24/2025 (MT Newswires) -- CIBC said it expects the Bank of Canada to ease administered rates by 25bps next week.

This will take the policy interest rate to 2.25%, the deposit rate to 2.20% and the bank rate to 2.50%.

Canada's central bank is slated to publish its policy statement next Wednesday, at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Barring something going very badly with the USMCA trade deal renegotiation, which cannot be fully ruled out, this is likely the final cut of the cycle, noted CIBC.

The bank's views on the market implications of this meeting are threefold. First, with so much priced into the meeting, it's unlikely the delivery of a cut itself matters all that much for the front-end. What will matter for 2s is the lack of communication, calling this out as the last cut (BoC wouldn't ever do that).

Second, proximity to the budget may restrict the magnitude of any duration move. Third, by moving to point forecasts, the BoC is implicitly telling markets it's now more patient.

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