September US Overall Consumer Price Growth Expected in Line With Previous Month

02:36 PM EDT, 10/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 0.4% in September, the same as in August, according to a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while the year-over-year rate is forecast to increase to 3.1% from 2.9%.

The CPI data are scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday after originally being scheduled for release on Oct. 15. The data are being released during the federal government shutdown to allow for the calculation of this year's Social Security cost of living increase.

Energy prices, particularly for gasoline, and food prices should post further modest increases but will not be the driving force of the overall headline gain.

The same survey looks for a 0.3% gain in core CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy components, the same as in the previous month. The year-over-year rate is expected to remain at 3.1% for a third straight month.

Prices in the owners' equivalent rents and regular rents categories are forecast to rise at a similar rate as the previous month, but there is a downside risk of slower growth. Those two categories combine for nearly one-third of overall CPI and a key focus for the Federal Reserve.

New vehicle prices are expected to post another modest gain while used vehicle prices are seen rising at a slower rate after a 1% gain in August. Price increases from other goods components are expected to reflect tariff effects, particularly for apparel, furniture and other imported goods.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measures, the overall and core PCE price readings, were due to be released on Oct. 31 but will likely be delayed. The CPI data are used by many analysts as a precursor to that report.

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