BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

07:38 AM EDT, 10/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will publish retail sales for August and preliminary September data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The retail sales report for August will give the bank the final piece of hard data to shape the gross domestic product call.

BMO noted that retail sales look to rise 1% month over month in August, consistent with a see-saw pattern that has seen spending decline an average of 0.1% in the first seven months of the year. The bank's call is in line with Statistics Canada's flash estimate and will be helped by an increase in goods prices for the month.

Lower auto sales will offset some of the headline increase, pointing to a larger 1.5% month-over-month gain in spending excluding autos.

BMO will also be watching the flash estimate for September sales closely for an early look at how consumer spending held up through Q3, though a continuation of the pattern points to a dip in activity.

Investors will also get an early look at September manufacturing sales as well at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday, added the bank.

Tallying it all up, Canada is probably going to be looking at a flat monthly real GDP reading for August, barring a massive surprise in retail, according to BMO. Home sales and hours worked were very modestly higher, but manufacturing and wholesale volumes were both down meaningfully. That will leave growth for all of Q2 still tracking below 1%.

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