Strong Population Growth Boosts Alberta's Provincial Economy But Challenges Young Job Seekers, Says RBC

11:46 AM EDT, 10/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The province of Alberta is expected to be among Canada's top-performing economies this year and in 2026, said RBC.

Yet despite the economic resilience, its unemployment rate ranks among the highest in Canada -- well above neighboring Saskatchewan and Manitoba and comparable with Ontario, where there's more exposure to United States tariffs, noted the bank.

Exceptional population growth driven by strong international and interprovincial migration has contributed to labor force growth outpacing job creation over the past two years, stated RBC.

It's created upward pressure on unemployment rates --particularly among younger workers, it pointed. Newcomers -- both international and interprovincial -- tend to be younger.

This suggests the rising jobless rate could reflect temporary labor market absorption pressures rather than underlying economic weakness, the bank added.

New federal immigration targets are expected to continue to slow the pace of demographic growth.

Alberta saw its first net decline in non-permanent residents in Q2 2025, seasonally adjusted, marking a pivotal shift. Still, overall population growth ranks above every other province.

RBC expects gradual labor market normalization as slower population growth provides adjustment room and continued economic expansion strengthens hiring.

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