Update: RBC Previews Tuesday's CPI Data in Canada
BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 10/21/25 07:08 AM EDT07:08 AM EDT, 10/21/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the consumer price index for September at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, said RBC.
The bank is marginally above consensus in looking for a flat month-over-month reading, above the consensus expectations for a 0.1% month-over-month decline -- forecasts spread from -0.2% to +0.1% month over month.
The RBC forecast is consistent with a rise to 2.3% year over year, reflecting the rolling off of a sizable gasoline price drop in September 2024.
As with last month, CPI is a key final input into next week's Bank of Canada policy meeting, stated RBC. Recent dovish comments from the BoC have helped push market pricing to around 70% for a follow-up cut, which is the bank's forecast.
The BoC is slated to publish its policy statement on Oct. 29.
Recent monthly core measures have been neutral rather than soft at around 0.2% month over month for four straight months, with a similar outcome for September, leaving three-month annualized rates close to 2.5% and year-over-year rates around 3%.
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