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RBC Preciviews Tuesday's CPI Data in Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 10/21/25 07:03 AM EDT

07:03 AM EDT, 10/21/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the consumer price index for September at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, said RBC.

The bank is marginally above consensus in looking for a flat month-over-month reading, above the consensus expectations for a 0.1% month-over-month decline -- forecasts spread from -0.2% to +0.1% month over month.

The RBC forecast is consistent with a rise to 2.3% year over year, reflecting the rolling off of a sizable gasoline price drop in September 2024.

As with last month, CPI is a key final input into next week's Bank of Canada policy meeting, stated RBC. Recent dovish comments from the BoC have helped push market pricing to around 70% for a follow-up cut, which is the bank's forecast.

Recent monthly core measures have been neutral rather than soft at around 0.2% month over month for four straight months, with a similar outcome for September, leaving three-month annualized rates close to 2.5% and year-over-year rates around 3%.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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