CIBC's Week Ahead Market Call For Canada

02:18 PM EDT, 10/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- According to Avery Shenfeld, while CIBC is a tick above consensus on headline inflation, the underlying story is still supportive for an October Bank of Canada rate cut. He said the two core measures will still have a 3-handle on a 12-month basis, but should look tamer on the 3-month moving average that the BoC has cited, and added the headline will be lifted by a short-lived bump in gasoline prices.

CIBC forecast CPI month over month of 0.0%, compared to a consensus -0.1%, and CPI year over year of 2.3%, versus 2.2%. Also CIBC estimates 3% in both CPI Core Median and CPI Core Trim year over year, same as consensus.

Shenfeld is also looking for the "see-saw" in retail sales data to continue next Thursday, with an upward bump in August coming on the heels of a prior dip, but the early read on September potentially seeing nothing much to cheer about beyond than the impact of those gasoline prices on nominal sales.

CIBC forecast total retail trade for August to rise 1% month over month, same as consensus, and for trade ex-auto to gain 1.3% month over month, below a consensus forecast of 1.5%

(On the CIBC calendar for Monday are September Industrial Product Prices and September Raw Materials data, as well as both the Q3 Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations from the Bank of Canada.

(On Tuesday, there will be an auction of $14.6 billion in 3-M BILLS and $5.2 billion in 6-M BILLS and $5.2 billion in 1-YR BILLS. On Wednesday, there will be an auction of $5.3 billion in 10-YR CANADAS.)

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