BMO's Provincial Labor Market Report Card for Canada

10:38 AM EDT, 10/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian employment fell by 46,000 in Q3 2025, the first

such quarterly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic and a clear indication the economic uncertainty has impacted hiring, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The unemployment rate sat at 7.1% to end the quarter up 0.4 percentage point on the year. Regionally, tariff-related uncertainty is weighing heavier in regions of the country more directly exposed to Canada-United States trade, noted the bank.

Ontario's employment fell by 20,000 in Q3 and was unchanged from a year ago as of September. Aside from

Newfoundland & Labrador, that's the weakest annual job

growth in Canada. Manufacturing employment has fallen

alongside trade uncertainty, while construction is now

down notably from the mid-2023 high.

Quebec has held up better, but job growth has stalled as well over the latest six months, pointed out BMO.

Alberta led the country in job growth in Q3 with a 12,000

increase, and growth also leads from year-ago levels, up a strong 3.8%. While the unemployment rate is elevated at 7.8%, it's not because the province is losing jobs -- quite

the opposite, added the bank.

The job market picture remains very mixed at the city level, with trade concerns making their mark, according to BMO. Cities that the bank deems relatively sheltered -- for example, Saskatoon, Calgary and Regina -- sit atop the latest conditions ranking.

However, trade-exposed cities in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada dot the bottom quartile, such as Windsor, Guelph and St. Catharines. Smaller Quebec cities exposed to steel and aluminum have, interestingly, improved in recent months, said BMO.

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