EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks, FX bounce after US Fed signals rate cuts ahead

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10/15/25 05:24 AM EDT

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Dovish Powell increases rate cut hopes

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MSCI EM indexes poised to snap multi-day losses

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Carry trade opportunities may soon arise, analyst says

By Niket Nishant and Johann M Cherian

Oct 15 (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks and currencies shook off recent pessimism on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks increased hopes of lower interest rates, offsetting concerns about renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

An MSCI index tracking emerging market equities climbed 1.9%, on course for its first gain after three straight sessions of losses. A similar gauge for currencies gained 0.5%, set to snap a six-day slide.

Dovish signals from the Fed generally reduce the appeal of the U.S. dollar, which can ease pressure on emerging market currencies and make local assets more attractive to investors.

A weaker dollar also lowers borrowing costs for countries and companies with dollar-denominated debt, which is significant for many economies that rely on external financing.

The current economic backdrop could also yield carry trade strategies, where investors borrow cheaply in dollars and chase higher yields in emerging markets.

"There are good opportunities in carry trade and at least for the next half a year, the trend is optimistic," said Vladimir Miklashevsky, an independent Finnish analyst.

MIXED SIGNALS ACROSS MARKETS

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index rose 0.3%. The International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast for the country on Tuesday.

The South African rand and the benchmark 2035 government bond also strengthened, despite a warning from a Moody's analyst who said weak investment was hurting its credit rating prospects.

India's benchmark equity index, the Nifty 50, was up 0.8%, on track to snap a two-day losing streak.

While the rebound underscores how sensitive emerging markets remain to global monetary policy cues, gains may be uneven across countries.

Malaysia's stock index was flat. The government will hold talks with the U.S. secretary of commerce on sectoral tariffs, including on semiconductors, during a meeting of the ASEAN regional bloc next week, state media reported.

Turkey's main BIST 100 share index was flat on Wednesday, after closing lower in the last five trading sessions. The lira was slightly weaker against the dollar.

Mainland China stocks traded higher, with the Shanghai Composite index up 1.2% as investors kept their hopes up for new monetary stimulus following data that showed deflationary pressures persisted due to prolonged property market downturn and trade tensions with the U.S.

Elsewhere, Pakistan's international bonds maturing in 2051 rose one cent on the dollar each after the IMF said it had reached a staff-level agreement with the south Asian country on its loan program, which would allow the country to access $1.2 billion after approval from the fund's board. (Reporting by Niket Nishant and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru, editing by Ed Osmond)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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