TSX Closer: Up More Than 500 Pts As Gold and Silver Shine, and Desjardins Plays Down Impact of Latest Targeted U.S. Tariffs

04:10 PM EDT, 10/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange bounced back Tuesday, recovering most of the big losses recorded at the end of last week, before the Canada Thanksgiving holiday weekend, as both gold and silver hit record highs, and as Desjardins expects all but one Canadian province to experience higher real GDP growth next year, despite a new round of targeted tariffs from the United States.

Today, the resources heavy index was up 502.72 or 1.7% at 30,353.61, even as oil futures settled lower. The TSX recovered most of a total 650 points lost over last Thursday and Friday.

Most sectors were higher, led by Base Metals up 6.4% and then Health Care and Info Tech, both up near 2%. In contrast, the Battery Metals Index was down 2.8% and Telecom eased near 0.6%.

Within the Telecom sector, BCE (BCE.TO, BCE) was down $0.71 or 2.1% at $32.75 after it unveiled its three-year strategic plan ahead of its investor day today. The Canadian Press noted BCE will begin offering fibre internet services in Western Canada using its rivals' networks under rules it has long opposed, as it seeks to grow its customer base and push for more bundled subscriptions.

Sector wise, concerns around U.S. trade policy were back in the spotlight here after new 25% tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities came in to effect, in addition to a 10% import tax on softwood timber and lumber. But the team over at Desjardins said Canadian provincial governments "took precautions for this possibility by being prudent in their budget planning and preparing measures to contend with trade shocks, making them well positioned to weather the storm."

Desjardins published a note entitled 'Provincial Economic Outlook: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly' in which it noted that it has been a "tough year" for Canada and its provinces. But despite the economic volatility and uncertainty, Desjardins raised its 2025 and 2026 outlooks for real GDP growth nationally and in central Canada, specifically Ontario and Manitoba. And while Desjardins lowered its 2025 growth projection for energy producing provinces, namely Alberta and Saskatchewan, compared to its June forecast, it now expects all but one province to experience higher real GDP growth next year.

According to Desjardins, "a better growth forecast is just part of the good news". Desjardins said it stems from the lower effective tariff rate on U.S. imports from Canada than previously projected, paired with an improved U.S. economic outlook. "The elimination of countertariffs on many imports from the U.S. will also help support growth by bringing down prices and providing relief to households and businesses. A broad reduction in internal trade barriers won't hurt either. The resulting lower interest rates will be a tailwind to economic activity too," it added.

But Desjardins also noted 'bad' news. Despite falling import tariffs and interest rates, it said the Canadian housing market is "on life support", particularly in the most unaffordable provinces, Ontario and British Columbia. In these regions, it noted, mortgage arrears are rising rapidly and condo presales are in the dumps, while at the same time, market rents are falling fast while rental supply is accelerating. This can in part be linked back to the abrupt reversal in non-permanent resident admissions, a phenomenon which is expected to continue, and possibly accelerate, into 2026, Desjardins added.

That, Desjardins noted, just leaves the 'ugly' news. That, it said, speaks more to the risks around the outlook than to the immediate reality. Going into the 2026 renewal of CUSMA, it added, there remains a material downside risk that the U.S. administration could ratchet up tariffs on Canadian exports again, in a repeat of 2025. "The administration has taken this approach recently with cabinets and furniture. However, provincial governments took precautions for this possibility by being prudent in their budget planning and preparing measures to contend with trade shocks, making them well positioned to weather the storm."

Of commodities, The Wall Street Journal noted gold futures settled the day at a new high, and traders think there's a potential for gold to rise as high as US$5,000 a troy ounce. "With ETF flows remaining strong [and] central bank buying expected to be resilient, we feel confident and compelled to update our target prices for gold," The WSJ cited Ben Hoff of Societe Generale as saying in a note. The WSJ noted the firm now forecasts gold to hit the $5,000 threshold by the end of 2026. Front-month gold closed up 0.7% to US$4,138.70 a troy ounce, marking the third straight positive finish. Silver also found a new high, with the front-month contract closing up 0.4% to $50.314 a troy ounce.

However, oil futures fell for the third time in four sessions with U.S.-China trade issues weighing and the IEA raising its crude surplus estimates for this year and next, The Wall Street Journal noted. Analysts, it reported, noted the IEA forecasts put supply next year nearly 4 million barrels a day above demand. "I'm personally not in that camp, but a supply/demand imbalance does look to be in the cards if OPEC continues with higher production numbers," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial was cited as saying in a note. "The latest tensions between the U.S. and China will also be a pressure point on crude as China's economy could be in question if tensions stay elevated." WTI settled down 1.3% at US$58.70 a barrel, and Brent fell 1.5% to US$62.39 a barrel.

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