IMF Revises 2025 World Growth Estimate Higher From July Estimate, Trade Effects Smaller Than Expected

09:00 AM EDT, 10/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The International Monetary Fund revised its estimate for 2025 global growth higher in its most recent World Economic Outlook Tuesday, though the expected pace is still below the growth rate in 2024.

Most areas saw upward adjustments from their previous estimates due to a smaller-than-expected impact from trade policies, with the notable exception of Canada.

Despite the upward adjustments, the IMF suggested that world economy is still facing a period of softening.

"Looking past apparent resilience resulting from trade-related distortions in some of the incoming data and whipsawing growth forecasts from wild swings in trade policies, the outlook for the global economy continues to point to dim prospects, both in the short and the long term," the IMF said.

World output is now expected to rise by 3.2% in 2025 after a 3.3% gain in 2024, an upward adjustment from a 3% estimate in the July version of the WEO. Growth is expected to slow modestly to 3.1% in 2026, unrevised from the July estimate.

For the US, the IMF now sees a 2% gain in 2025 after a 2.8% increase in 2024, an upward adjustment from the 1.9% growth estimate for 2025 in July. A slight acceleration to 2.1% growth is expected for 2026, an upward adjustment from the 2% gain previously estimated.

The Canadian economy is expected to expand by 1.2% in 2025 after 1.6% gain in 2024, a sharp downward adjustment from a 1.6% gain previously estimated for 2025. Growth is seen accelerating to 1.5% in 2026, a downward adjustment from the 1.9% increase in the July WEO.

Euro area growth is now seen at 1.2% in 2025 after a 0.9% gain in 2024. The new estimate represents an upward revision from a 1% gain forecasted in July. Growth is expected to decelerate to 1.1% in 2026, revised down from 1.2% gain in the July estimate.

UK economic activity is now expected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, a small upward adjustment from a 1.2% gain previously estimated and following a 1.1% increase in 2024. The UK economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026, revised down from 1.4% in the July estimate.

The Japanese economy is expected to expand by 1.1% in 2025, an upward adjustment from the 0.7% gain estimated in July and following a 0.1% increase in 2024. The IMF sees Japanese growth slowing to 0.6% in 2026, an upward adjustment from a 0.5% gain in the previous estimate.

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